The Luo Vote After Raila: Where Nyanza Stands in 2026

As of September 2026 the Luo vote in Nyanza was split three ways in public. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leadership backs working with President William Ruto toward 2027. Inside that camp, leaders disagree over whether the support should come with conditions, including a 50-50 share of government and the Deputy President's slot. A smaller group around James Orengo (Governor, Siaya), together with Edwin Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi movement, is building an alternative. Raila Odinga, who held the region together for three decades, died on 15 October 2025.

ODM's official line: with Ruto

The party is led by Raila's elder brother, Oburu Oginga (Senator, Siaya), who was confirmed as party leader at a special delegates convention in March 2026. He travelled to the UK for medical care on 6 September 2026, leaving deputy leaders Simba Arati (Governor, Kisii) and Abdulswamad Nassir (Governor, Mombasa) to run party affairs. For the background, see ODM after Raila Odinga.

Ruto toured Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori from 13 to 16 September 2026. During the tour ODM chair Gladys Wanga (Governor, Homa Bay) said 99.99 per cent of the party's leadership backed the broad-based arrangement and that 14 of its 15 governors supported it, the Star reported. "We will sit and negotiate to form the next government," Ruto said. The government put the value of projects under way in the four counties at more than Sh220 billion.

The split inside the camp: conditions or none

On 22 September 2026 the Star laid out the two positions.

The list of names for Deputy President keeps growing. On 14 September ODM youth leader Dan Nyibule proposed Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, and Treasury CS John Mbadi put himself forward, the Nation reported. Western MPs backed Co-operatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya. See what UDA and ODM agreed on paper.

The alternative: Orengo, Sifuna and Babu Owino

Orengo declared at a burial in Homa Bay on 28 August 2026 that he would run for president.

Sifuna, removed as ODM Secretary-General in February 2026, leads Linda Mwananchi. The movement held rallies in Homa Bay on 16 August and in Nairobi on 13 September. Its Homa Bay tour ran into roadblocks and attacks, and police arrested suspects afterwards. Babu Owino (Embakasi East) launched The Mwananchi Party in September, and on 13 September Orengo and Sifuna promised talks to settle on one candidate. See what the Homa Bay rally showed.

Nationally, a TIFA poll with fieldwork from 13 to 22 June 2026 had Sifuna on 15 per cent in presidential preference, behind Ruto on 24 per cent. The TIFA reports we read gave no figures for Nyanza alone.

Local races after Raila

Two governor seats are opening up. Anyang' Nyong'o (Governor, Kisumu) is term-limited, and on 25 August 2026 the Star listed eight aspirants for Kisumu, among them Ruth Odinga (Women Rep, Kisumu) and Tom Ojienda (Senator, Kisumu). In Siaya, where Orengo has declared for president, three aspirants aligned with the broad-based government declared on 15 September. Young voters count for a lot in both; see Nyanza and Western's share of new Gen Z voters.

What to watch

ODM planned a month of events for the first anniversary of Raila's death, starting with a rally in Kakamega on 9 October and ending in Nairobi on 31 October, the Nation reported, and a UDA-ODM pre-coalition agreement was expected to follow. Whether that agreement meets the 50-50 demand will decide whether Nyanza's leaders stay united behind Ruto.