Nairobi Governor Polls, September 2026: Babu Owino, Kagure, Sakaja and Gakuya

Babu Owino (Embakasi East) led every Nairobi governor poll published between April and September 2026. The two most recent, by Mizani Africa (fieldwork 21 to 28 August) and the Bobea Report (26 August to 2 September), put him at 28.4 and 26.7 per cent. They disagree on who is second: Mizani has businesswoman Agnes Kagure at 27.2 per cent, while Bobea has Johnson Sakaja (Governor, Nairobi) at 23.2 and James Gakuya (Embakasi North) at 21.9, with Kagure down at 7.1.

Every published poll, side by side

Sources: Citizen Digital for the April poll, Streamline Feed for the July Mizani release, Nairobi News for the August Mizani poll and Ghafla for the Bobea Report. The April poll also had former PS Irungu Nyakera and Ronald Karauri (Kasarani) at 1 per cent each. Mizani's July release had Dennis Waweru at 1.5 and George Aladwa (Makadara) at 1.4. Bobea had Kevin Odhiambo at 2.6.

What the four polls agree on

Babu Owino is first in all four. His share, though, falls from 37 per cent in April to between 26.7 and 28.4 in the late-August polls.

Every poll that reports undecided voters finds a big bloc of them, between 9 and 18.5 per cent. And Sakaja, the incumbent, never comes first; in the April poll 80 per cent of respondents disapproved of his performance.

Where they disagree, and why that matters

The trouble is Kagure. Mizani put her at 27.2 per cent, within about a point of Babu Owino. Bobea, polling in almost the same week, put her at 7.1. Both margins of error are about three points or less, so both cannot be right. The likeliest explanations are differences in who was sampled (registered voters or all adults), in how respondents were reached, and in which names were read out. Bobea described its method as enumerators talking to people "across markets, villages, estates, and workplaces" and did not publish a sample size. Mizani did not publish its method in the report BallotWinners read.

Gakuya has also moved, from 7 per cent in April to 21.9 in the Bobea poll. Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has made Nairobi a target, and Gakuya is its expected candidate. For how to read a gap like this, see reading a margin.

One number is missing from the table on purpose. A graphic showing Gakuya at 52.56 per cent, branded as an Ipsos poll, was declared fake by PesaCheck on 22 September 2026. Ipsos said it had conducted no such poll.

The field has moved since the fieldwork

A good deal happened during and after the fieldwork. Irungu Nyakera dropped his governor bid on 18 August 2026 to seek the Makadara seat on DCP. Bishop Margaret Wanjiru (Starehe) declared for governor, as reported on 6 September. Some Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) MPs said on 6 September that Sakaja, elected on the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket, would have to face ODM primaries if he sought its ticket. And on 18 September Babu Owino unveiled The Mwananchi Party as his vehicle for the race.

We wrote about the April survey in Babu Owino's early Nairobi lead. For the national mood behind these numbers, see the TIFA poll, in which 89 per cent of Nairobi respondents said the country was on the wrong track.

How to read these polls

Nairobi has 17 constituencies and 85 wards, and the governor's race is won on the most votes; nobody needs a majority. With four serious names in the field, 30 per cent could be enough. The undecided bloc and the party tickets will probably decide more than the order of the top two in any one poll. No party had named its Nairobi governor candidate as of 23 September 2026; party primaries close in May 2027. What the winner would control is set out in what a Kenyan governor actually controls.

Watch for a poll that publishes its sample, method and fieldwork dates, and includes Wanjiru.