TIFA: 76 Per Cent of Kenyans Say the Country Is Going the Wrong Way

TIFA Research released a survey on 9 September 2026 in which 76 per cent of Kenyans said the country was going in the wrong direction. The Star put the share saying "right direction" at 14 per cent; other outlets reported 15. The fieldwork ran from 13 to 22 June 2026, with 2,048 adults interviewed face to face in all 47 counties, and the 76 per cent is up from 68 per cent in November 2025.

How the survey was done

People aged 18 and over were interviewed across nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western. Kenyans.co.ke reported the interviews were face to face. No margin of error was published in the reports BallotWinners read, so small differences between groups should be treated with caution.

Anyone comparing polls should note the dates. TIFA released its presidential numbers on 24 July, with William Ruto at 24 per cent, Edwin Sifuna (Senator, Nairobi) at 15, Fred Matiang'i at 14, Kalonzo Musyoka at 13 and Rigathi Gachagua at 7. Those came from the same June fieldwork. So the mood figures released in September describe the country as it felt in June 2026, and nothing later.

The headline numbers

The Star described the result as a "sharp deterioration" from November 2025. The Online Kenyan, a news aggregator, called 76 per cent the highest level recorded.

Where the mood is worst

People Daily reported the wrong-direction figure by region: 90 per cent in Mt Kenya, 89 per cent in Nairobi, 83 per cent in Lower Eastern and 82 per cent in the South Rift. On personal finances, Kenyans.co.ke reported that 79 per cent in Mt Kenya and 74 per cent in Western said they were worse off than in 2022.

Mt Kenya voted heavily for the Kenya Kwanza ticket in 2022. Ninety per cent there fits the region's political shift covered in Mount Kenya is voting against the government it elected.

What people say is wrong

Asked to name the country's most serious problem, 44 per cent said unemployment and poverty, 25 per cent inflation, high prices and taxes, 19 per cent corruption and 7 per cent poor leadership. Inflation fell from 47 per cent of mentions in May to 25 per cent in June. TIFA attributed the swing to the "shock" of the April and May fuel price rises wearing off, with unemployment returning to "its leading position". The jobs arithmetic behind that answer is in 800,000 job seekers, 100,000 jobs.

TIFA added its own warning: "Unless this changes over the next year, it could be challenging for all politicians seeking re-election."

Protests and the broad-based government

Citizen Digital reported two further findings. Asked who was responsible for violence around protests, 42 per cent named the President and the national government, 24 per cent the police, 12 per cent political leaders, 9 per cent protesters and 6 per cent jobless youth. And 82 per cent said they supported peaceful, lawful demonstrations.

Nairobi News and The Online Kenyan reported that more than half of respondents opposed the broad-based arrangement between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The Star's account of the poll did not include that figure, and BallotWinners could not find TIFA's exact number, so it is reported here only as those outlets gave it.

What the poll does not tell you

Mood and votes are different measures. People who say the country is on the wrong track do not all back the same challenger, and some vote for the incumbent anyway. The June wave also predates every event of July to September 2026, including the IEBC's election notice and the opposition's party realignments. For how to read these numbers without over-reading them, see six mistakes people make reading Kenyan election numbers and what the 2026 polls actually show about Ruto's re-election.

The next TIFA wave would show whether the figure kept rising. As of 23 September 2026 TIFA had not announced when it would be released.