ODM Wants Half the Government. Can the Broad-Based Deal Survive That?

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) says it will back President William Ruto in 2027 only for half of the next government, including the Deputy President's seat. Its chair, Gladys Wanga (Governor, Homa Bay), and deputy leader Simba Arati (Governor, Kisii) called both demands "not negotiable" on 8 September 2026. Ruto has promised to "negotiate" and has not named a number. As of 23 September no coalition agreement between ODM and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) had been signed, so the deal has not yet been tested on paper.

What ODM has asked for

The clearest version came at the party's Chungwa House headquarters on 8 September, at a meeting to receive defectors from Narok North. "If UDA gets 10 cabinet secretaries, then we also have to get the same number. If UDA gets the president, then we have to get the deputy president. These are not negotiable," Wanga said, according to the Nation.

Arati went further. "There are no other stories because in the next government we have to get half of all positions. The way I'm looking at things in the unfolding political arrangement, ODM will get even more than half. We are very serious," he said.

He repeated it with Ruto in the room. At Chemelil, in Muhoroni, on 14 September, during the President's Nyanza tour, Arati said: "ODM and UDA will go 50/50. There is no shortcut about it," Capital FM and Citizen Digital reported. Three days later at Karachuonyo in Homa Bay, the wording had changed. "We have agreed with the President that in building this broad-based government moving forward, it will be a 50-50 equal partnership," Arati said, as reported by BusinessToday and carried by Streamline Feed. No document setting out such an agreement has been published.

The running-mate claim has names attached. More than 25 MPs from Western Kenya endorsed Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya on 7 September. In Kisumu on 14 September ODM youth leader Dan Nyibule proposed Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi, and Treasury CS John Mbadi put his own case, the Nation reported.

What Ruto and UDA have said back

Ruto has avoided a figure. In Kisumu on 13 September he told ODM: "We will sit and negotiate to form the next government. Do not be worried," The Star reported. At a church service in the city the same day he said "UDA and ODM are not competitors but partners in the Broad-Based Government", according to Capital FM. At Karachuonyo he spoke of ODM having found its rightful place in government.

None of that accepts a half share. On the Deputy President's seat the signals from UDA run the other way. The Nation reported that Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku have maintained the post should stay in Mt Kenya, and Senate Majority Leader Aaron Cheruiyot (Senator, Kericho) has said Kindiki will remain Ruto's running mate, The Standard reported. Why the second seat on the ticket carries so much weight is explained in what the deputy presidency is worth in a coalition.

Half of what, exactly

The demand is simpler to say than to count. The Constitution caps the Cabinet at 22 Cabinet Secretaries, and the President appoints them with the approval of the National Assembly. No law divides them between parties. Any split would live in a coalition agreement and depend on the President keeping to it.

Seats are harder than Cabinet posts, because they are fought for before the election, not shared out after it. The Star reported on 8 September that ODM wants a joint technical team to map which areas would be zoned for one party and which would get joint tickets. An ODM source told the paper: "All seats in Luo Nyanza will be zoned, Coast will be mostly joint, but Rift Valley counties will be free for all."

MPs on both sides pushed back. "If you have credible nomination, you don't have to worry about zoning," said Elisha Odhiambo (Gem). Millie Odhiambo (Suba North) said: "Those who have delivered to the people should have no fear of competition." Peter Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) defended zoning "based on the strength and popularity of the various parties". Where those fights are sharpest, in Nairobi, Mombasa and Kajiado, is the subject of a separate post.

Where it could break

Three pressure points stand out from the reporting.

The first is the running mate. ODM has made it a condition, and Kindiki's allies treat his place as settled. Both cannot be satisfied on one ballot.

The second is the ground. The Star put it plainly: an MP who has spent five years building a base is unlikely to surrender a ticket quietly because party leaders reached a deal in Nairobi. The paper warned of parallel campaigns, with candidates from the two parties running against each other while their leaders preach unity, and of losers in nominations leaving for other parties.

The third is the public. TIFA's poll released on 9 September found, as Nairobi News and The Online Kenyan reported it, that more than half of respondents opposed the broad-based arrangement.

Against that, ODM's leadership has stayed inside. Wanga said on 13 September that "99.99 per cent" of the party's leaders backed the broad-based government, and Junet Mohamed (Suna East) told Ruto's Migori stop on 16 September that ODM would keep backing it. What the two parties have agreed in writing so far is in the ten-point agenda, and the tour where the 50-50 line was aired is in Ruto's five days in Nyanza.

What to watch

ODM's leader, Oburu Oginga (Senator, Siaya), was in the United Kingdom for medical care as of 23 September. The Nation has reported that a pre-coalition agreement was expected after ODM's October memorial programme for Raila Odinga, which ends in Nairobi on 31 October. That document is where the 50-50 claim either appears in writing or does not. What a lawful pre-election agreement has to contain is set out in what must be inside a pre-election coalition agreement.