What Is a Presidential Run-Off, and When Does Kenya Need One?
Updated 2 October 2026.
A presidential run-off is a second, two-candidate election that Kenya must hold if nobody wins outright in the first round. Under Article 138(4) of the Constitution of Kenya 2010, a candidate wins outright only by taking more than half of all the votes cast and at least 25 per cent of the votes in each of more than half of the 47 counties, which means 24 counties. Miss either test and Article 138(5) requires a fresh election within 30 days, between the top two. No Kenyan presidential election has gone to a run-off since the rule was written.
What the Constitution actually says
Article 138 sets out the whole procedure, and it is short. BallotWinners read the text of the Constitution as promulgated in 2010.
| Clause | What it provides |
|---|---|
| 138(4) | Declared elected only with more than half of all votes cast and at least 25 per cent in each of more than half of the counties |
| 138(5) | If nobody is elected, a fresh election within 30 days, with only the candidate or candidates with the most votes and the candidate or candidates with the second most |
| 138(6) | If two or more candidates tie for first place, only they go through, and second place drops out |
| 138(7) | In the fresh election, whoever gets the most votes wins |
| 138(10) | The IEBC chairperson declares the result within seven days of the presidential election |
Clause 7 matters more than it looks. In the second round there is no 24-county test and no 50 per cent test. The candidate with more votes wins.
The two first-round tests are separate. A candidate could take 55 per cent nationally and still be forced into a run-off by falling below 25 per cent in too many counties. The reverse is also possible: 25 per cent in 30 counties and 48 per cent nationally is not enough. Our explainer on the 24-county rule works through the county arithmetic.
How close Kenya has come
Three general elections have been run under the 2010 Constitution. Each winner cleared the national test, twice by a thin margin.
| Election | Winner | Share of valid votes | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 March 2013 | Uhuru Kenyatta | 50.51 per cent (6,173,433) | Raila Odinga, 43.70 per cent |
| 8 August 2017 | Uhuru Kenyatta | 54.27 per cent (8,203,290) | Raila Odinga, 44.74 per cent |
| 9 August 2022 | William Ruto | 50.49 per cent (7,176,141) | Raila Odinga, 48.85 per cent |
The figures are the IEBC's declared results. In 2022 there were 14,213,027 valid votes, so Ruto finished about 69,628 votes above the halfway line.
The 2013 result turned on a point of law. Rejected ballots were 108,975. Had they been counted as "votes cast", Kenyatta's share would have been about 50.07 per cent, still above half but by less. When Raila Odinga's petition was dismissed on 30 March 2013, the Supreme Court also held that invalid or spoilt votes should not have been included when the IEBC calculated percentages. So "all the votes cast" in Article 138(4) means valid votes.
The August 2017 result was annulled by the Supreme Court on 1 September 2017. The repeat poll on 26 October 2017 was not a run-off. It was a fresh election ordered under Article 140, and all eight original candidates stayed on the ballot.
The timetable if it happens in 2027
The general election is set for 10 August 2027. If no candidate meets both tests, the Constitution's 30 days would run from that date, putting the second round no later than 9 September 2027.
That squeezes several things together. The IEBC has seven days to declare the first-round result, and a loser can petition the Supreme Court within seven days of the declaration under Article 140, with 14 days for the court to decide. Nothing in Article 138 says how a petition over the first round interacts with the 30-day clock for the second, and no Kenyan court has had to answer that. The petition timetable is explained in seven days to file, fourteen to decide.
Why the question is live for 2027
A run-off becomes more likely as the first-round field grows. As of 23 September 2026 the opposition had not agreed on one candidate. Edwin Sifuna (Senator, Nairobi) had been endorsed by the Linda Mwananchi movement, James Orengo (Governor, Siaya) declared on 28 August 2026, Fred Matiang'i is Jubilee's endorsed candidate, David Maraga is the United Green Movement's, and The Star reported on 23 September that Kalonzo Musyoka's camp wanted him named the joint opposition candidate by 10 October. The fight over how to pick one is covered in poll or negotiation.
Polls measure stated preference months out, and none in 2026 put any candidate near half. TIFA's June 2026 fieldwork had William Ruto on 24 per cent and Sifuna on 15. Infotrak's, taken from 22 to 26 June, had Ruto on 32. Both left large shares undecided or split, which is why every camp's strategy talk turns on consolidation. A single opposition ticket makes a first-round win possible for either side. Four or five tickets make a second round a real possibility.
The full list of names is in who is actually running for president. The date to watch is the IEBC's presidential nomination window, which closes on 11 June 2027. The number of names on that ballot will tell you how likely a September run-off is.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Kenya hold a presidential run-off?
When no candidate wins more than half of all valid votes cast and at least 25 per cent of the vote in each of at least 24 counties. Article 138(5) of the Constitution then requires a fresh election within 30 days.
Who is on the ballot in a Kenyan run-off?
Only the candidate with the most votes and the candidate with the second most. If two or more candidates tie for first, only they go through. The winner of the second round is whoever gets the most votes.
Has Kenya ever had a presidential run-off?
No. Under the 2010 Constitution the winner cleared the first-round tests in 2013, 2017 and 2022. The October 2017 repeat election was a court-ordered fresh election after the Supreme Court annulled the August result.
Do rejected ballots count as votes cast in Kenya's 50 per cent rule?
No. In March 2013 the Supreme Court held that invalid or spoilt votes should not be included when calculating a presidential candidate's percentage.