A Kalonzo-Sifuna Ticket: What the 2026 Poll Numbers Suggest
The 2026 polls make a better case for putting Kalonzo Musyoka of the Wiper Patriotic Front and Edwin Sifuna (Senator, Nairobi) on one ticket than for deciding whose name goes first. Infotrak found a Kalonzo-Sifuna pairing at 23 per cent. As individual presidential choices, TIFA and the Bobea Report had Sifuna ahead of Kalonzo, and Infotrak had Kalonzo one point ahead. Every poll had President William Ruto first, and none of them predicts August 2027.
The plan the numbers are being used for
The Star reported on 23 September 2026 that Kalonzo's wing of the opposition wanted him unveiled as joint candidate by 10 October with Sifuna as running mate, and that the camp pointed to Infotrak's 23 per cent pairing figure. We covered the plan in Kalonzo's 10 October target.
The polls, side by side
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Ruto | Sifuna | Kalonzo | Matiang'i |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIFA | 13 to 22 June 2026 | not published in reports we read | 24% | 15% | 13% | 14% |
| Infotrak | 22 to 26 June 2026 | 3,000 adults, 47 counties | 32% | 12% | 13% | 12% |
| Bobea Report | 26 August to 2 September 2026 | not stated; margin of error 3.1 points | 35.2% | 19.1% | 9.0% | 14.0% |
TIFA also had Rigathi Gachagua at 7 per cent and Babu Owino (Embakasi East) at 2 per cent. The Nation reported it was the first poll with Sifuna ahead of Kalonzo. Among opposition-leaning respondents, 62 per cent told TIFA that Gachagua should back the strongest opposition candidate rather than run himself.
Infotrak found Deputy President Kithure Kindiki the most preferred running mate for Ruto, at 34 per cent. Bobea had 17.7 per cent undecided and 5.0 per cent saying they would not vote.
What the numbers support
Only one poll asked about the pairing. Infotrak's published figures include a ticket question and put Kalonzo-Sifuna at 23 per cent. We did not find a published question testing the two head to head against Ruto and Kindiki.
As individuals, the two men are close. Kalonzo led Sifuna by a point on Infotrak; Sifuna led by two on TIFA. Gaps that small fall inside the ordinary margin of error of a national poll of a few thousand people, so neither poll picks a leader between them.
Sifuna's line has been rising. TIFA said he "has recorded the fastest rise among Opposition figures", from close to zero in 2025. Bobea's poll, taken two months after TIFA's, had him at 19.1 per cent against Kalonzo's 9.0, a wider gap than in June. Bobea did not publish its sample size in the report we read, though, and a single poll is too little to call a trend.
What the numbers cannot tell you
Shares do not add up. Sifuna's 15 per cent and Kalonzo's 13 per cent do not make 28, because some of each man's supporters would not follow him onto a joint ticket, and some Matiang'i or Gachagua voters might. That is why a direct ticket question matters, and why having only one is a problem.
The national share is also the wrong yardstick on its own. A Kenyan president needs more than half of all valid votes and at least 25 per cent in 24 or more of the 47 counties, so a ticket's regional spread counts as much as its national number. Our explainer on the 24-county rule sets out the arithmetic.
And June is a long way from August 2027. The TIFA and Infotrak fieldwork was done more than a year before polling day. For how the incumbent's numbers moved across the year, see Ruto's path in the 2026 polls.
The question the polls raise
If the ticket is Kalonzo-Sifuna, two of the three polls suggest the running mate is at least as popular as the candidate. Sifuna's allies can use that. The pairing looks easier to agree than the order of names, and Kalonzo's camp cites Infotrak's figures, which put him fractionally ahead.
For caution on reading single polls, see what Infotrak's 32 per cent does and does not mean.
What to watch
- Any new national poll that asks a ticket question directly, with the order of names tested both ways.
- Whether pollsters publish sample size, fieldwork dates and margin of error. Without them a figure is hard to check.
- Sifuna's party unveiling, which his allies said in September would come around 3 October, and whether he takes the running-mate offer.
Frequently Asked Questions
How popular is a Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket?
An Infotrak poll, cited by The Star in September 2026, put a Kalonzo-Sifuna pairing at 23 per cent. It was the only published ticket question we found.
Is Sifuna more popular than Kalonzo?
TIFA's June 2026 poll had Sifuna at 15 per cent and Kalonzo at 13; Infotrak's June poll had Kalonzo at 13 and Sifuna at 12; the Bobea Report's poll from late August had Sifuna at 19.1 and Kalonzo at 9.0.
Who leads the 2026 presidential polls in Kenya?
President William Ruto led every 2026 national poll we reviewed, at 24 per cent in TIFA, 32 per cent in Infotrak and 35.2 per cent in the Bobea Report, with no candidate near 50 per cent.